You had to watch closely to see it, but several of Trump's cabinet members have come under fire from Republicans recently when they appeared before members of Congress. Of course, the Democrats can be counted on to go after them and to criticize Trump, but as long as Republicans remain in control of Congress, there will be very little oversight and Democrat ranting in committee meetings may make some Democrat voters feel like their congressman is fighting the good fight, but it will have little impact. Until Democrats retake Congress, for Congress to have any impact on the operation of government or to moderate Trump's behavior will require some Republican defections from Trump. I think we are starting to see it.
I have predicted that Congressional Republicans would start abandoning Trump at a rate parallel with the trend of his popularity. The trend is heading in the right direction for Republicans to feel emboldened to oppose Trump. The lowest approval rating for Trump ever was 29% in Jan 2021, following the January 6th attempted coup. Trump's poll approval numbers since returning to office have been around 47%–52%. As of today, RealClearPolling Average has Trump's approval rating at 43.3% approval and 54.8% disapproval. That is still not bad, but there is a lot of discontent about Trump. The ICE murders in Minneapolis, his losing the tariff fight at the Supreme Court, his continuing cover-up of the Epstein child molestation ring and his associations with Epstein, and now the war with Iran are all taking their toll. They are weakening Trump, and as he weakens, Republican members of Congress will more likely defy him. With every drop in a poll number, Republicans will be more vocal in criticizing Trump. I don't know how low he would have to go for it to really matter, but Republicans will react much differently if Trump's popularity stands at 37% than if it stands at 47%.
Perhaps as damaging to Trump's overall popularity rating decline is that elements of MAGA are turning on Trump. There is war going on in MAGA world between those for whom the Epstein files were a major concern and they are not going to just accept defeat. They want the truth to be revealed, and they feel that Trump, who ran on a campaign of releasing the files and punishing the guilty, has betrayed them. Some feel he is covering up his own complicity. On the other hand, there are those members of MAGA world who have almost a religious faith in Trump and can switch positions on any issue if Trump tells them to. To them, MAGA and America First are whatever Trump says they are. If Trump says we need to turn the page on Epstein, they are ready to do it.
The war against Iran is also contentious within MAGA world. Some believed America First was an isolationist agenda and then there are those who can switch on a dime and will follow Trump anywhere.
This war within MAGA has more import than just the size of the voting bloc that identifies as MAGA. Those who care most about the Epstein files or the war against Iran and other foreign adventures are the kind of people who attend town hall, will call their congressman, who engage on social media, who work the polls, and are the small donors. Congress members want to keep these people placated and they get annoyed when Trump does things that cause these activists to call their office or shout at them at a town hall. And these MAGA congressmen don't know how to respond. Do they continue to side with Trump no matter his flipflop or do they side with the MAGA element that wants the Epstein files released and opposes foreign entanglements?
So, I see a couple of things happening at the same time. Trump's poll numbers are slipping, which makes Congress members feel emboldened to be more critical of the administration. Also, their most activist supporters are unhappy and Congressmen feel a need to placate them but don't really know how. Republican Congressmen, at this point, cannot directly attack or criticize Trump because even those MAGA activists who disagree with some of Trump's positions still like Trump. So, they can argue that what is wrong with the Trump administration is not Trump but that he is not being well-served by the people around him. Thus, they can grill Trump cabinet members in congressional hearings and claim to be supporting Trump, not attempting to harm him.
I contend that Kristy Nome was a sacrificial lamb. She did nothing that was not either modeling Trump's behavior or carrying out his wishes. To recap the case against her and why Trump cut her loose, here are some particulars:
1) A firm tied to Kristi Noem secretly got money from a $220 Million DHS ad contract. The company is run by the husband of Noem’s chief DHS spokesperson and has personal and business ties to Noem and her aides. DHS invoked the “emergency” at the border to skirt competitive bidding rules for the taxpayer-funded campaign.
We know that this type of corruption is normal in the Trump administration, but Trump doesn't want anyone else ripping off the taxpayers but himself. He wants all of the control in his corrupt regime. He sees someone else's corruption as an infringement on what is rightfully his and making money at his expense.
2) Kristi Noem was the star of the ad. One of the ads was shot at Mount Rushmore, featuring Noem sitting on horseback in chaps and a cowboy hat. Noem addresses the camera with a stern message for immigrants: “Break our laws, we’ll punish you.”
I suspect Trump is jealous of Noem. Trump wants it all to be about him. He wants to be the center of attention. He resents someone else building a support base and getting attention at his expense.
3) The public affair with Corey Lewandowski is an embarrassment. Both Lewandowski and Noem are married, and the affair is quite public and Lewandowski works for Noem. That doesn't look good and looks an awful lot like sexual harassment. In addition, Lewandowski has a history of embarrassing behavior, including improper lobbying, hitting on women in public and improperly touching them, and rudeness toward underlings. You may recall the incident in which Lewandowski tried to order an airplane pilot to turn a plane around to retrieve a blanket Noem had left on another plane.
Trump, being the womonizer and crude and rude person that he is, probably does not really care about any of this but it was proving an embarrassment.
4) Her pronouncements that the two people killed by ICE in Minneapolis were "domestic terrorists" immediately after the shootings. was defended by many in MAGA world, but normal Americans were appalled and this is one of the drivers in Trump's poll numbers decline. Trump doesn't really care that ICE murdered two Americans, but if it is driving his poll numbers down and endangering his agenda he cares and someone needs to be the scapegoat.
So given all of this, what happens next?
This could all blow over; it could be that her replacement does not cause embarrassment, and not much changes. Congressmen who criticized her in committee are seen as doing their job and actually helping Trump get rid of someone who was serving him poorly and this incident is neutral or actually helps Trump. Congress members who were critical of Noem are seen as serving Trump rather than opposing him and Trump accepts that he had to give his critics one scalp of a person who was proving an embarrassment and will not have to give any more or change any policies.
On the other hand, this could severely weaken Trump. If you look at other cabinet members such as Pam Bondi, Cash Patel, Pete Hegseth, Robert Kennedy, Jr., or Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, they have all done things to cause embarrassment, or displease the pubic, or the MAGA base. I don't think the throwing of Kristy Noem under the bus will satisfy them.
Each of the above cabinet members is, deserving of attention but take the case of Pam Bondi. The handling of the Epstein files has been a disaster from the start. From the event where she handed out big notebook binders to a bunch of Trumpinista influencers, which was supposed to settle the issue, to the release of heavily redacted files that exposed the names of victims and protected the names of the powerful, to the continuing failure to release all of the files has been a disaster for the Trump administration. Remember "drain the swamp?"
And then there is her failure to indict the eight Congressmen who put out a video reminding service members that they should follow the law and not carry out unlawful orders. It is said that you can indict a ham sandwich, but she could not get an indictment. Also, there have been other failed attempts to prosecute Trump critics.
Pam Bondi looks like a liability. Trump can sacrifice one of his team to save the mission, but giving up another cabinet member makes Trump look weak. Republican congressmen, meanwhile, still have a restless MAGA base they need to placate and a public that is turning against Trump by the day.
Also, the Supreme Court striking down tariffs means that Republicans will have to cast a vote in favor of tariffs in order to keep Trump's tariff policy on track. It is one thing to abdicate one's responsibility and allow Trump to impose tariffs, and it is something else to have to cast a vote to impose tariffs. I suspect some Republicans who found it easy to do nothing and allow the tariffs will find it harder to actually vote for tariffs.
And, there is the war. A lot of the general public and the MAGA base will oppose the war, especially if it is not over soon and if there is more loss of American lives. According to the War Powers Act the president must notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops, which he did. The act then mandates ending hostilities within 60-90 days unless Congress declares war or authorizes the action. That is going to be a hard vote to cast. To vote to continue the war, Republicans will pay the price at the ballot box; to not do so makes Trump look really weak.
In addition, already being involved in the war in Iran and having just recently attacked Venezuela, Trump would be hard-pressed to attack another nation. The option of engaging in military action to distract from other problems is pretty much eliminated. He can't keep going back to that well. Even if neither of those military engagements was launched to distract from other issues, many assume they were, and he has already played that card.
So, I see the firing of Nome as a desperate act born of weakness and think it will embolden Republicans to oppose Trump's policies and challenge his authoritarian agenda. Trump has shown not to be invincible. As his poll numbers drop, critics will be bolder. My only reason for not being more thrilled than I am by this development is that a wounded lion can be more dangerous than one that is unharmed. Who knows how Trump will react once he starts losing power?
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