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9. Tennessee Republican Senate primary (Aug. 7): Sen. Lamar Alexander is in strong position to defeat his main primary challenger, state Rep. Joe Carr. Carr has been running to Alexander's right on immigration. But he simply hasn't raised the money or built the kind of support from national tea party groups he needed to make this a really close race. Anything can happen, as Rep. Eric Cantor's (R-Va.) race taught us. But if you're looking for the next incumbent upset, this probably isn't it. (link)
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