According to an article in today's Tennessean, Mayor's Nashville transit plan requires $9B for all expenses - nearly double the construction price tag. This assumes no cost overruns. One would be foolish to not assume cost overruns. The average cost overrun is about 50% and many do much worse. The Big Dig in Boston was approved in 1982 for completion in 1998, at an
estimated cost of $2.8 billion. The project was to re-route 3.5 mile of an interstate in downtown Boston and put in a tunnel under the city. It was finally completed 25 years
later in 2007, at a cost that The Boston Globe estimated at $22
billion. Nashville's proposal includes 26 miles of new light-rail, improved bus service and an 1.8 mile
tunnel through limestone below downtown. If approved by voters I am betting the final cost of Nashville's transit program will be about $25 billion. In addition, the fare box seldom covers the operating cost and requires massive annual subsidies.
Transit project cost overruns (source) |
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