by Rod Williams, July 20, 2022 - In a Politico article by David Siders today, he wrote that while the conventional wisdom about the Jan. 6 committee hearings was that no single revelation was going to change Republican minds about Donald Trump, that what instead has happened is "a slow drip of negative coverage," that was damaging the former president.
Six weeks into the committee’s public hearing schedule, an emerging consensus is forming in Republican Party circles — including in Trump’s orbit — that a significant portion of the rank-and-file may be tiring of the non-stop series of revelations about Trump.
The fatigue is evident in public polling and in focus groups that suggest growing Republican openness to an alternative presidential nominee in 2024. The cumulative effect of the hearings, according to interviews with more than 20 Republican strategists, party officials and pollsters in recent days, has been to at least marginally weaken his support.(link)
I hope this is so and believe it is. Die-hard Trumpinistas will always believe the stolen election lie. Faith is hard to shake. We will always have true believers among us. While I would like to see Trump brought to justice and believe no one should be above the law, I think the best thing that could happen is if Trump just fades away.
Indicting Trump is problematic. While we know without a doubt he promoted the fake electors scheme and he tried to pressure State officials to change election results, the allegation that he plotted the Jan. 6th attack on the capitol is kind of weak. I am not sure they found the smoking gun. There is circumstantial evidence but not absolute proof, based on what has been made public so far. He may be morally culpable but not legally.
Another problem is that if he is indicted and announces his run for the Presidency, it will be unseemly for the Biden Justice Department to be prosecuting a case against Biden's opponent. This would fuel madness among Trumpinistas. Many other former Trump supporters who are not quite Trupinistas would be persuaded that the deck was stacked against them and the charge that the prosecution of Tump was politically motivated would appear persuasive.
And then, what happens if Trump is found "not guilty?" It only takes one jury member to keep from there being a verdict of guilt. Trump's supporters would see "not guilty" as vindication for everything Trump did. The belief in the stolen elections would be stronger than ever. We do not need a more deeply divided country.
I hope Trump's support continues to fall and he sees the writing on the wall and does not run, or if he does announce, he will see his support fading and he will drop out of the race. I fear, however, that Trump is so delusional and has such an ego that he will not believe the poll numbers and if he runs and begins to lose primaries he will allege the primary elections were fixed. If so, we can deal with it. Even an angry Trump alleging he was robbed of the nomination may not doom Republican chances in 2024. More and more Republicans will see the emperor has no clothes and Trump's support will continue to fade if he tries to rally supporters to a stolen primary narrative. Chances of victory will look good for 2024 and Republicans will get over Trump.
I want the Party to heal and return to sanity. I will be willing to rally behind someone like DeSantis who is seen as a Trump ally. He may not be my first choice but he is not Trump, If he is the nominee or if some other Trump ally is the nominee, as long as he is not an extremist nut, I will support him. That is to say, I will support almost any Republican unless it is Tucker Carlson or one of the few really nutty Republicans. I don't expect the rabid Trump supporters to ever admit that Trump attempted a coup. I don't expect them to admit the 2020 election was not stolen. They don't have to. We can look to the future rather than the past.
I hope Trump will just fade away.
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