The Marco Rubio Pick for Secretary of State offers a Glimmer of Hope

by Rod Williams, Nov. 13, 2024- Since having to face the fact that Donald Trump won the election, all I can do is hope for the best. Trump supporters have never believed Donald Trump when he talked about recalling a retired general and having him court marshalled for treason or when he talked about suspending the Constitution or any of the other of his expressions of his authoritarian tendencies. After his supporters got past saying he really didn't say it, they would settle on he said but didn't really mean it or they would say he meant it but really wouldn't do it. Unlike his supporters, I believed Donald Trump. 

Now, that Trump will return to office, and return to office without the guardrails of his first term, I can only hope that his supporters were right, and I was wrong. I want to be wrong. If I was right, I can hope that our institutions can withstand the challenge. 

Court challenges can slow some of Trump's worst instincts. I know that many liberal critics of Trump think of the Supreme Court as Trump lapdogs. I don't. I think the Court will uphold the Constitution.  I also think our military take seriously their oath to the Constitution and they know they do not take an oath to a president. I don't think the military will shoot Americans even if ordered to do so by the president. Military officers can be fired by the president of course and loyalist can be promoted, but it would take a while to remake the military in Trump's image. 

Another factor that may mitigate Trump's authoritarian tendencies is that he may quickly overreach, and the public may turn on Trump and Republicans would lose the next mid-term.  If Trump imposes across the board tariffs, we will see an almost immediate increase in consumer prices and the public will not be happy. 

While I think securing the border and expelling criminal immigrants is popular, if people see long-time illegal immigrant being arrested as they leave church or neighbors being drug out of their home, people will turn against Trump. Hearing someone say they will do something extreme is one thing; seeing is something else. 

Also of course, there is some solace in that Trump is old, but not much. Trump is only a year older than me, and I do not feel like I am ready to kick the bucket anytime soon but life expectancy for American males is only 74.8 years, so maybe Trump won't live long enough to destroy our democracy. If he does complete this coming term, maybe he will be ready to retire in four years. In any event, I do not feel that this 2024 election will be our last. I think there is about a 90% chance we will again have a legitimate election in 2028. Despite my fears, I expect democracy to survive Trump.

I am paying close attention as Trump picks his cabinet and staff, looking for any glimmer of hope that Trump will not be as bad as I fear he could be.  I am trying not to focus on the negative and instead accentuate the positive. I saw a glimmer of hope in that Trump has selected Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State. Trump could have picked someone like Steve Bannon or Tucker Carlson or Marjorie Taylor Green. That is sort of what I expected. Trump did pick a totally unqualified talk show host to head the Department of Defense, and I expected an equally bad choice for State. 

Marco Rubio is qualified and smart and mainstream. He has served eight years in the Senate and is a member of the Foreign Intelligence Committee. He did, like most Republicans, bend the knee and kiss the ring, but Trump was not going to pick anyone who had not. Last term Trump surrounded himself with traditionalist establishment Republicans. I did not expect that this time. Anyone Trump picked would have to be a Trump loyalist. While Rubio proved himself to be a Trump loyalist, his loyalism came late. Rubio did vote against the most recent aid package to Ukraine. However, in 2022, Rubio said we should continue the funding of Ukraine as long as Ukraine would continue the fighting. I take some solace in that at least Rubio knows what the policy should be even though he buckled to Trump's will. In his heart, Rubio is not an isolationist. 

Another thing that encourages me about Rubio is that he was pretty much the architect of our policy toward Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. When Biden came to office he kept those policies in place. 

I was watching an episode of The Bulwark last night and one of the members on the panel reported that he had a first-hand report from someone who was in the room who said that after Venezuela's Maduro did something particularly offensive that Trump was talking about invading and disposing Maduro and Rubio pulled out a mad and showed Trump why such a move would be risky and appealed to Trump's ego by explaining why such a move would prove embarrassing to Trump.  If true, that is the kind of person we need around Trump. Rubio appears to be a hawk but pragmatic. 

I'll take a glimmer of hope wherever I can find it. 

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