Biden has a small window to make big fixes to U.S. trade policy

By Scott Lincicome, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 21, 2024 - 

The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 will spark a significant shift in U.S. economic policy across numerous issue areas, but changes to U.S. trade and industrial policy might be more subtle than severe. We are still operating under many of the trade policies Trump set during his first term. After campaigning in 2020 against the broad-based and damaging tariffs Trump imposed, President Biden maintained and even expanded U.S. trade restrictions and other forms of economic nationalism.

The motivation for such consistency, however, was in large part political: It was an open secret in Washington that Biden’s advisors, needing “Rust Belt” votes to win reelection and facing a vocally protectionist opponent in Trump, viewed economic nationalism as the only viable approach. Now unburdened by such concerns and facing the reality of a failed political strategy, Biden has a short time to remedy past policy errors and improve the United States’ economic and geopolitical prospects before Trump takes office.

There are several significant moves he could make. The suggestions that follow are undoubtedly optimistic but are neither impossible nor futile. Some smart moves, such as nixing most U.S. tariffs, are off the table because they would require Congress. Other actions, such as initiating new free-trade-agreement talks, take time and could therefore be easily stopped by the incoming Trump administration before they got far. Biden could, on the other hand, take several other moves that would constitute a significant and more durable improvement in policy.

He should start with tariffs. Ideally, Biden would reembrace his 2020 campaign position on the economic and geopolitical harms of indiscriminate U.S. tariffs and terminate both the “national security” tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports and the “Section 301” tariffs on Chinese imports that began under Trump. Both measures were imposed on dubious grounds and have since inflicted serious pain for little gain. Because they were implemented unilaterally, moreover, Biden could nix them with the stroke of a pen.

Just as important, full termination would mean that reinstituting the tariffs next year — or adding even more on top of them as Trump has promised — would require the next administration to undertake lengthy bureaucratic investigations. In the meantime, freer trade would flow, and other tariffs and trade restrictions — such as the dozens of “trade remedy” measures on Chinese imports — would remain in force, mitigating claims that Biden was leaving the economy vulnerable to a flood of nefarious foreign goods.

Barring full termination of these tariff actions, Biden should eliminate those that have no plausible connection to our economic or national security. This includes tariffs on simple consumer goods from China — tiki torches, vacuum cleaners, baby blankets, etc. — as well as supposed national security tariffs on metals from close allies in Europe and Asia. Even on economic nationalists’ own terms, these measures make little sense, and quickly reimposing them next year, at a time when inflation still resonates with voters, might prove politically nettlesome. Tariffs imposed by the U.S. raise prices for American consumers — not usually a good look for politicians.

Beyond the tariffs, Biden might also consider terminating the global “safeguard” restrictions on imported solar panels, which are both costly and unnecessary. Thanks in part to these measures, solar panel prices are far higher here than abroad, thus harming U.S. solar installation companies and slowing the energy transition. Removing the safeguard would thus help advance Biden’s climate ambitions, while leaving Chinese solar cells and modules subject to several other, more targeted U.S. trade restrictions.

Next, Biden should encourage Congress to retake some of the constitutional authority over tariffs that the legislative branch delegated to the president during much of the 20th century, when everyone assumed that the president wouldn’t abuse such power — an assumption that the first Trump administration proved incorrect. Because it’s unclear whether federal courts would stop the global tariffs that Trump has promised this time around, the only sure way to eliminate this risk rests with Congress. Reform legislation has been offered in this regard, and encouraging and signing it would significantly lower the risk of damaging future Trump tariffs. It would also be a credit to Biden’s legacy, at little cost to him; he can make reforms now that would be binding on his successors, but his own presidency was not limited by them.

Finally, Biden should turn to investment and fast-track federal approval of a Japanese company’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel, which has been held up for months on obviously political grounds. As has been widely documented, U.S. Steel’s shareholders and management overwhelmingly approve of the offer from Nippon Steel, as do many American steelworkers. Industry experts also widely agree that Nippon’s acquisition — involving billions of dollars in new U.S. investments and creating a Western counterbalance to China’s steelmaking prowess — would benefit both the American steel industry and national security more broadly. Approving the deal, which Trump has vocally opposed but former Trump advisors have cheered, would also signal to the world that the U.S. government — or, at least, half of it — remains open for business and welcoming to beneficial foreign investment.

This wish list is, of course, idealistic. But it would represent a radical improvement in U.S. policy — one that Biden could achieve quickly, in some cases unilaterally. Such progress is all but guaranteed not to happen in 2025. And at this point, anyway, it’s not like the president has anything to lose.

Scott Lincicome is the vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute. 

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. No changes were made to the original by the editor of this blog. 

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Social Security is just nine years away from insolvency. Congress should not vote to make the problem worse.

 

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Nov. 12, 2024- The House of Representatives will soon vote on the Social Security Fairness Act, legislation which would repeal Social Security’s Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO). The unpaid-for bill would add $196 billion to deficits over the next decade and hasten Social Security’s insolvency by roughly six months while adding to the size of the benefit cuts that will automatically take place under current law.      The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

How is speeding up the date of Social Security’s retirement fund’s insolvency, increasing the size of the automatic benefit cuts that will hit seniors, and adding $200 billion to the deficit a good plan for seniors or for the country? Yet that is exactly what the Social Security Fairness Act would do.     Social Security is just nine years away from insolvency, and our seniors need a fix fast. Congress should not vote to make the problem worse.     The WEP and GPO were created to prevent Social Security from overpaying certain beneficiaries who also collect state and local pensions, which they paid into instead of paying Social Security taxes during their employment for state and local governments. These provisions aren’t perfect, and there are lots of ideas to reform them. But repealing them altogether would move in exactly the wrong direction.    They should call this bill the Social Security UnFairness Act; it creates a Windfall Expansion Provision for a small number of beneficiaries who would get to double-dip their retirement benefits.    At a time when we’re already borrowing $2 trillion a year and retirees are already slated to see a 21 percent benefit cut – an average of $16,500 for a newly retiring couple in 2033 – in just nine years, why would we make it a 22 percent, $17,300 cut in eight and a half years instead?     There is broad consensus among experts and lawmakers that reform, not repeal, of WEP and GPO would ensure fairness and could actually improve the program’s solvency.     Every day we get closer and closer to Social Security insolvency, and we are no closer to solutions than we were years ago when we first knew we had a problem. For those who say they want to protect Social Security this bill goes in the absolute wrong direction.

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Gross National Debt Reaches $36 Trillion

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Nov. 22, 2024 -  The gross national debt of the United States reached $36 trillion yesterday, just over three months since the previous milestone was reached at the end of July, according to the U.S. Treasury. 

The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: 

As if lawmakers needed any other reasons to take America’s fiscal health seriously, the gross national debt of the United States has now officially reached $36 trillion. We started 2024 by crossing the $34 trillion threshold, added another trillion during the summer, and now we’re heading into the holidays with yet another trillion. Government borrowing is becoming as certain as the changing of the seasons these days. 

It’s often said that the more times you say a word over and over, the more it starts to lose its meaning. With so many trillion-dollar debt milestones in recent years, it’s easy to forget that each of them has real-world consequences. 

But rising debt poses serious domestic and geopolitical risks: it slows our economy, threatens higher inflation and interest rates, and squeezes our budget through higher interest rates. And it hampers our ability to be flexible in responding to recessions and disasters at home and foreign crises abroad. 

And the future trajectory looks bleak as well. Even when using the more economically meaningful measure of debt held by the public – currently well over $28 trillion – debt is headed for an all-time record share of the economy in just two years. Interest payments are the fastest-growing part of the budget and will cost $13 trillion over the next decade alone.  

The incoming Trump Administration and Members of the 119th Congress face several fiscal hurdles from the moment they take office – starting with the reinstatement of the debt ceiling in January and a $1.7 trillion PAYGO scorecard waiting to greet them. The way they approach that and other crucial decisions ahead like the expiration of discretionary spending caps and the 2017 tax cuts, as well as how they choose to offset the costs of their new policies, will determine our fiscal health for a long time. We hope they choose the responsible path forward. 

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Lawsuit challenges race requirements on Tennessee's boards

By Kim Jarrett, The Center Square, Nov 12, 2024 - The Pacific Legal Foundation and physician organization Do No Harm are suing Tennessee over racial quotas required to serve on the state's boards and commissions.

The 13-page lawsuit filed in U.S District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee says laws that require the governor to appoint members based on race violate the 14th Amendment.

The lawsuit specifically aims at the state's Board of Medical Examiners and Board of Chiropractic Examiners. State law requires the governor to "strive to ensure the full twelve-member board is composed of at least . . . one (1) person who is an African-American" on the board, according to the lawsuit.

"It's unconstitutional in allowing for people to be picked or not based on just the color of their skin or their ethnicity, ignoring their individual merit," said Pacific Legal Foundation attorney Caleb Trotter in an interview with The Center Square. "That very notion of people being prefaced of others based on their race is an odious concept under the equal protection clause."

The organizations are also challenging a race requirement for the Tennessee Board of Podiatric Medical Examiners.

“State medical boards are given important responsibilities to oversee the quality of care in their state and the safety of patients,” said Do No Harm Chairman Dr. Stanley Goldfarb. “It is crucial that they be the most qualified physicians available. Like all aspects of health care, patient safety and patient concerns should be primary, not the skin color or the racial makeup of any oversight committee.”

Tennessee is not the only state that considers race or sex for board memberships, according to a 2023 study by the Pacific Legal Foundation. Race or sex is considered in 14 states for some boards.

The Pacific Legal Foundation won an Iowa lawsuit challenging a gender balance requirement for the State Judicial Nominating Commission. Gov. Kim Reynolds signed a bill in April banning the requirements.

The Iowa Chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union, the League of Women Voters of Iowa and the Iowa Chapter of the Sierra Club were among the organizations opposing the bill.

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Report: Tennessee has as many as 64,000 unfilled jobs

By Kim Jarrett, The Center Square, Nov 11, 2024 – An economist for the University of Tennessee said the state is growing but the labor force participation rate has declined. 

Dr. Don Bruce, director of the university's Boyd Center for Economic Business and Research, told the State Funding Board at its November meeting that Tennessee employment is up by 195,000 since March 2020. The state's unemployment rate remains low at 3.2% compared to the national rate of 4.1%. But the labor force participation rate is still depressed at 59.4% in September, according to numbers he presented.

The national rate is 62.7%. 

"We think that has to do with in-migration of early retirees, it has a lot to do with people going to school, there's lots of stories behind this," Bruce said. "But I think what we've learned in the past few years is it's really hard to turn that trend around with policy." 

If every unemployed person went to work in Tennessee, the state would still have 64,000 unfilled jobs, he said. "Part of that is geographic, distribution of jobs versus distribution of available workers, it's also skill mismatch sometimes but the bottom line is we can stand to have a few thousand more workers in Tennessee to keep up with this really interesting and strong demand growth," Bruce said. 

The low labor force participation rate has affected wage growth. Tennessee remains below the national per capita income of $69,810 recorded in 2023 at $62,229. "The punchline here is Tennessee continues to make ground on the U.S." Bruce said. "We used to be 10 to 15 percentage points below the U.S. when it comes to any measure of cost of living or incomes. We are getting closer to that 10% range with our person income of $62,229 per capita."

Rod's Comment: If President Trumps carries out his plan for massive deportation, look for the number of unfilled jobs to drastically increase. 

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Of All the Bad Trump Cabinet Picks, Matt Gaetz is the Worst

Matt Gaetz

by Jonah Goldberg, The Dispatch, Nov. 15, 2024- ... There’s a robust discussion on the right about how bad these picks are, and I’ll say this in defense of Hegseth—he comes out as the least bad. I don’t think he’s a good choice. But that’s mostly because I don’t think he has the skill sets to run one of the largest, most complicated and important organizations in the world. And while I have plenty of issues with Hegseth, I am confident that he starts from defensible, patriotic assumptions about America that make him the least objectionable of the group. I don’t like his effort to seek—and get—pardons for accused war criminals. But if you stipulate that his version of the facts was correct—which I believe he believed—it was defensible. 

Some folks think Gabbard is the worst pick. She’s a seriously unserious person with a penchant for blame-America-first arguments and flip-flopping like a wounded moth trying to find the limelight. The director of national intelligence should be a stolid, solid man or woman in a gray suit, an answer to a tough trivia question, not a political and ideological exotic. 

Others think Kennedy is the worst pick. I have to agree that he’s the worst person of the bunch, and I say this even if all of the allegations against Matt Gaetz are true (and I’m open to the possibility that some aren’t). Kennedy is a profoundly dishonest and dishonorable man. 

In 2001 alone, he cheated on his wife 37 times. This isn’t gossip. This is his own account. And it wasn’t bragging. That number comes from his own diary. His wife found the journal, and it apparently played a role in her suicide We can come back to his shoddiness in a moment. But I am happy to concede, as an intellectual matter, that an adulterous sleazeball could make for a competent Health and Human Services secretary. His grotesque personal behavior should be a reason to disqualify him from any honored role in public life—yes, I’m one of those judgy conservatives—but reasonable people can disagree about such things. But it is his “professional,” public behavior that should make him unacceptable. 

For starters, there’s nothing in his résumé that qualifies him to oversee 1 in 4 dollars spent by the federal government. Then there’s the fact that he’s a crank and fabulist who insists, to name just two examples, that cell phones and Wi-Fi cause cancer. Think about how much you’ve been exposed to Wi-Fi and cell phone signals over the last 20 years. It’s certainly true that massive exposure to electromagnetic radiation is best avoided. But if he was right, you’d think we’d see an increase in the cancers he says are caused by moderate exposure. There has been none. 

The Heritage Foundation and others think he’s a hero because of his anti-vaccine crusade in the COVID era. I think that’s all nonsense for the most part. But he was anti-vax when conservatives were mocking anti-vaxxers as left-wing loons. His anti-vax group directly contributed to the deaths of 83 Samoan children from measles, and the supposedly science-driven Kennedy simply lied about it. Kennedy is an intellectual lightweight hungry for respect as an expert. So he talks like an expert with the hope that people won’t notice that he’s just making stuff up. 

In a secret recording, he just made up nonsense about COVID being bioengineered to target black and Caucasians while sparing Jews and Asians. It was all nonsense. So by all means … let’s give him a $2 trillion budget? 

And then there’s Matt Gaetz. Personally, I think he’s the worst pick, because the attorney general is a lodestone of the executive branch. I totally get how under the theory of the unitary executive, the attorney general is just an extension of presidential authority. But there’s a longstanding expectation that the attorney general is supposed to be a de facto—if not necessarily a de jure—check on abuses of executive authority. This is why conservatives complained so bitterly about previous attorneys general being too chummy with the president, starting in the modern era with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s father.

Over the years, thousands of right-wing op-eds and cable news diatribes have excoriated Janet Reno, Eric Holder, Merrick Garland et al. for too much water-carrying for Democratic presidents. The factual merits of those indictments vary, but the principle they invoked was correct. The only argument for Gaetz boils down to “we should do it too!” 

If you believe that overly politicized AGs are bad, if you wax righteous about the rule of law, and if you decry politicized prosecutions (accurately or not), arguing “now it’s our turn” is not an honorable, moral, or patriotic argument. But that is the only argument for Gaetz America can handle a flibbertigibbet in the DNI’s office. It can handle a dangerous loon at HHS. It can even handle an anti-woke cable news host as defense secretary. But an attorney general whose only “qualification” is to be a MAGA version of the Hand of the King, makes the burden of handling those other things infinitely more burdensome. 

Gaetz would not see getting to the bottom of executive branch excesses as part of his portfolio—he would see defending and enabling those excesses as central to his mission. Trump wants a Roy Cohn to run the Department of Justice, and that alone is reason to reject his preferred choice. Indeed, that’s the real problem with all of these picks: the picker. 

Trump wants loyalists, enablers, and TV pitchmen to staff his administration. There’s nothing we can do—now—to change that. He was legitimately and decisively elected president. But every senator was elected to be a senator, too. And, according to the Constitution, their job isn’t to “support the president,” but to protect and defend the Constitution and, with that in mind, to advise and consent to presidential appointments. 

Rod's Comment: I agree. Although, if Tulsi Gabbard really is a Russian asset, having her in charge of American intelligence could pose serious security risk to the nation. Kennedy is a nutjob of the first order and could lead to millions of deaths if America has a major health crisis and if we do not, it could lead to a resurgence of diseases that have mostly been eradicated and cause the death of many American, especially children. On balance, however, I must agree that Gaetz is the worst of the picks. Having an Attorney General whose task is to go after the presidents' critics is a danger to our democracy and a step toward a true authoritarian regime. 

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Metro to Resume Enforcing Traffic Laws

by David Hunt, From The Pamphleteer, Nov. 18, 2024 --The key to reducing traffic fatalities is to ramp up the enforcement of traffic laws. We’ve been saying this for as long as we’ve been writing these newsletters, but it looks like that idea is finally starting to catch on in the Metro Council. The Banner reports this morning that Councilmembers Jacob Kupin and Jeff Eslick are sponsoring a resolution requesting that MNPD and the Nashville Department of Transportation and Multimodal Infrastructure increase traffic enforcement.

Even the mayor has started to come around. “I have observed a slight increase, anecdotally, in very reckless driving with extraordinarily high rates of speed on local roads, and I’m comfortable if somebody in that scenario gets pulled over for a significant traffic violation,” Mayor Freddie O’Connell told the Banner.

Getting pulled over in Nashville used to be a fairly regular occurrence. Before graduating high school, I got at least a handful of speeding tickets and warnings, and attended driving school on two separate occasions; in general, I felt very monitored on the road. Because of that, I'd try to follow the speed limit, use turn signals more consciously, and come to a full stop at every stop sign. The thought of a law man out there who might pull me over changed the way I drove.

Then, in 2018, I learned that the Metro Nashville Police Department would no longer pull over drivers for minor infractions. After a series of studies were released purporting to find no correlation between the number of traffic stops and the reduction of criminal activity, traffic stops fell off precipitously.

It had long been a goal of the department to reduce the number of stops. In 2012, MNPD initiated 445,152 stops. By 2018, they got that number down to 204,484. In 2022, the most recent year for which there’s full data, MNPD conducted just 18,663 traffic stops.

With this in mind, at the start of Covid, I bought a cheap 1990 Mazda Miata and didn’t bother to register it. I treated it as a “fugitive” car of sorts. I stopped considering speed limit signs, referred to it as my go-kart, and on lazy Sunday afternoons, I’d blitz down Briley Parkway and split off onto the rural roads in North Davidson County. Looking back on that period, I am certain that I achieved nirvana.

My point in telling this story is that I could feel the lack of police presence on the roads, and as a result, my behavior changed. Even with the risk entailed while driving an unregistered vehicle, I wasn’t concerned in the slightest about being stopped.

Similarly, less conscious and more reckless drivers than myself across the country have changed their behavior. As traffic stops plummeted, drivers have acted more erratically and, as a result, roads have gotten more dangerous for both drivers and pedestrians. Pedestrian deaths are currently the highest they’ve been in forty years.

A number of reports analyzing what’s contributed to this rise focus on the size of SUVs, the use of smartphones, or inadequate infrastructure. Twelve years ago, an entire global initiative designed to address it called Vision Zero emerged. And cities like Nashville have adopted its tenets, building out pedestrian infrastructure and modifying roads to make them safer (e.g. illuminating crosswalks and banning right on red). Vision Zero initiatives are tied deeply into Freddie O’Connell’s transit referendum. It’s a program you hear about repeatedly from local leaders as a kind of secular mandate from heaven that requires urgent attention.

And yet, the solution is sitting right at their feet. The roads are more dangerous now because people drive more dangerously. The most immediate thing the city could do to make them safer is empower police officers to pull over people for driving like idiots again. 

Rod's Comment: It seems hard to deny that traffic enforcement leads to better driving. I have received a few tickets in my life and after everyone, for a while, I am more cautious about driving the speed limit and coming to complete stops at stop signs and following other traffic laws. I would assume that not only does getting a ticket cause the person getting the ticket to drive more safely but when some people drive more safely, it effects the way other people drive.  Why we ever thought that we could cut back on traffic enforcement and it not affect people's behavior, I don't know. 

I walk almost every day for exercise. One is taking their life in their hand when crossing an intersection. After I get the "walk" light, cars just keep turning. I hope that Metro resuming traffic enforcement includes a focus on people making illegal turns and failing to yield the right-of-way to pedestrians. 

The Pamphleteer is a great source for keeping up with local news. Please subscribe. 

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Bill Freeman, Business Mogul, Mayoral Candidate, Democrat Donor, Dead by Suicide

Bill Freeman

by Rod Williams, Nov. 18, 2024- It is shocking when someone who you feel like you know commits
suicide. Bill Freeman has been a fixture in the lives of Nashvillians for as long as I can remember. He was a major developer, served on board of various organization, was a major fundraiser for national, state, and local Democrat candidates, and was himself an unsuccessful candidate for mayor. 

Many years ago, when I worked at Metro Development and Housing Agency Freeman was either an official of the agency or a board member of MDHA. When I was a running for Metro Council the first time, I met with Freeman and solicited a campaign contribution. He has been in the news one way or another for the last forty-so years. 

Freeman committed suicide using a gun. He had suffered multiple strokes over the years and had never fully recovered. He was 73 years old.

Condolences to the family. RIP

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How Robert F. Kenndy Jr. Could Destroy One of Civilization's Best Achievements

by Rod Williams, Nov. 17, 2024- I can't say I am shocked by Trump's cabinet picks. I was hoping Trump would pick qualified, sane, and normal people to surround himself. I didn't expect it but was hoping. If Trump's cabinet picks are any indication, I suspect my worst fears about Trump will be realized. People like Pete Hegseth, Matt Gaetz, Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr are disturbing choices. 

Hegseth is simply not qualified to administer the largest bureaucracy in the world. If he were just a figurehead spokesman and left the generals in charge, he might function okay. However, I suspect his job will be to purge the top rank of military leaders of those who are not loyal to Trump and to put Trump loyalist in place. Hegseth may not be the worst of Trump's picks, but he does not belong in the cabinet.

We have every reason to believe Matt Gatz will use the justice department to go after the "enemies within." He will attempt to make the Justice Department subservient to the will of the president. Matt Gaetz also appears to be morally challenged. 

 Tulsi Gabbard is a Russian propogandist and likely a Russian asset. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is simply a nutjob.  The only way Trump could have had worst cabinet picks is if he included Tucker Carlson, Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, and Alex Jones. Wait, Trump still might find a place for them.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr is a special kind of nutjob. He has been spreading misinformation for more than twenty years. I guess I am kind of surprised that Trump picked Kennedy. For one thing, Kennedy is a nutjob of the left. Of course, Trump is not a conservative. There is nothing conservative about trade wars, ballooning the deficit, abrogating America's leadership role in the world and appeasing dictators, and disdain for the rule of law and constitutional governance. These days however the fringe of the left and the right are not that different. Nevertheless, Trump came to power riding the conservative brand. I would have thought that to put a left-wing activist in his cabinet would be going too far for Trump's supporters, but it is not. Trump and Kennedy did have in common a distrust of vaccines and advocacy of weird, unorthodox treatments for those infected by Covid.  I guess that sealed the deal.

I am not certain that Trump is really that committed to getting Kennedy in his cabinet. Maybe Kennedy is just a bargaining chip. Maybe Trump will withdraw the Kennedy nomination and then Trump's critics can feel like they accomplished something, and they will let the rest slide through. 

Kennedy presents a special threat to the nation's health. We need someone in that position who people take seriously, someone who will rally people to get vaccinated or follow CDC guidelines when a health crisis emerges, not someone who is going to discourage and likely put incentives in place to discourage vaccines. We need a serious person in that position. We need someone with gravitas and who is respected in the public health field. With Kennedy we have someone that only conspiracy theorist trust. I fear a return of deadly diseases that have mostly been eradicated. 

Since his appointment, I have had people who appear to be rational people try to make excuses for Kennedy and to normalize him. It is really hard to do. They will say he is not opposed to vaccines; he just wants to make them safe and offer other rationalizations as to why Kennedy's appointment is not that alarming.  

I know that many Trump supporters will favor the Kennedy nomination not in spite of him being a nutjob and conspiracy theorist, but because of it.  Many have lost faith in institutions and think than any establishment point of view or consensus is suspect. They no longer have faith in the media, academia, science, the government, the military, the intelligence community, and the non-profit sector. They are tired of "elites" telling them what they should think. They don't trust the people with credentials and experience. They reject "the establishment." There has been a democratization of who the influencers are.  The only elites many trust are the mavericks casting doubts on norms and challenging consensus. 

I am posting below some links and excerpts from articles that explain who Robert Kennedy Jr. is and what he has done and what he advocates and why his reputation is well deserved. I know some will take some statement Kenedy made recently that sound reasonable and moderate and giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, they will conclude Kenedy is not that weird. There is a reason Kennedy's reputation is well deserved. Some of these articles are kind of lengthy. Not everything can be explained in 280 characters.

I know the true Trumpinistas will never entertain any criticism of Trump. The leader can do no wrong. For one thing, they will dismiss these articles because of the source. If it appears in the New York Times or The Atlantic it is immediately dismissed.  If it is not reported by Fox News are a very limited number of other outlets, then it is not to be considered. Trumpinistas do not want any contrary information. Their mind is made up and they do not want to be confused with facts. Their response will be "bullshit" and "fake news."  Nevertheless, responsible people need to push back when people try to normalize people like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 

RFK Jr.’s Conspiracy Theories: Here’s What Trump’s Pick For Health Secretary Has Promoted

by Sara Dorn, Forbes, Nov 15, 2024- ...

... RFK Jr. Said Covid-19 Targets ‘Caucasians And Black People’

Kennedy Jr. was caught on camera in July of 2023 telling fellow diners that “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people” and “the people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese,” according to a video made public in the New York Post, which also shows him saying the U.S. “put hundreds of millions of dollars into ethnically targeted microbes” and labs in Ukraine collected Russian and Chinese DNA “so we can target people by race.”

... He Claims The Fda “suppresses” Advancements In Health

... He Says That Wireless Technology Can Cause Cancer And Other Conspiracies

... He Says Fluoride Causes Diseases 

...  He Says Mass Shootings Are Linked to Prescription Drugs

...  He Believes The 2004 Presidential Election Was Stolen From John Kerry (read more)

How Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Could Destroy One of Civilization’s Best Achievements

by Zeynep Tufekci, The New York Times, Nov. 15, 2024- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Tuesday that he will head up a panel on vaccine safety for Donald Trump.

The president-elect’s transition team spokeswoman later walked that back, saying that he is “exploring the possibility” of forming a panel on autism, but “no decisions have been made.”

Let’s hope Trump drops any idea of a vaccine panel headed by Kennedy. For more than a decade, Kennedy has promoted anti-vaccine propaganda completely unconnected to reality. If Kennedy’s panel leads to even a small decline in vaccine rates across the country, it will result in the waste of untold amounts of money and, in all likelihood, the preventable deaths of infants too young to be vaccinated.

That wasted money will largely affect public health departments, whose budgets are already strained. A 2010 study in Pediatrics calculated the public sector expenses of containing a measles outbreak in which 11 children were infected at $124,517, an average of more than $10,000 per infection. That’s not to say that families won’t be affected as well: During that outbreak, 48 children too young to be vaccinated had to be quarantined at an average cost of $775 per family; medical costs for one infant who was infected were close to $15,000.

But those costs pale into comparison to the loss that will be felt by families who lose children to vaccine-preventable diseases, which typically strike when children are infected while still too young to be vaccinated.

Take pertussis, more commonly known as whooping cough. There have been several dramatic spikes in pertussis infections in the past decade, and in 2012 there were 48,277 reported cases in the US—the most since 1955. More than 87 percent of all of the country’s pertussis deaths from 2000 to 2014 were in infants younger than 3 months, which meant they wereRobert F. Kennedy Jr. said Tuesday that he will head up a panel on vaccine safety for Donald Trump.

... Let’s hope Trump drops any idea of a vaccine panel headed by Kennedy. For more than a decade, Kennedy has promoted anti-vaccine propaganda completely unconnected to reality. If Kennedy’s panel leads to even a small decline in vaccine rates across the country, it will result in the waste of untold amounts of money and, in all likelihood, the preventable deaths of infants too young to be vaccinated.

That wasted money will largely affect public health departments, whose budgets are already strained. A 2010 study in Pediatrics calculated the public sector expenses of containing a measles outbreak in which 11 children were infected at $124,517, an average of more than $10,000 per infection. That’s not to say that families won’t be affected as well: During that outbreak, 48 children too young to be vaccinated had to be quarantined at an average cost of $775 per family; medical costs for one infant who was infected were close to $15,000.

But those costs pale into comparison to the loss that will be felt by families who lose children to vaccine-preventable diseases, which typically strike when children are infected while still too young to be vaccinated.

Take pertussis, more commonly known as whooping cough. There have been several dramatic spikes in pertussis infections in the past decade, and in 2012 there were 48,277 reported cases in the US—the most since 1955. More than 87 percent of all of the country’s pertussis deaths from 2000 to 2014 were in infants younger than 3 months, which meant they were too young to have gotten their first pertussis shot. too young to have gotten their first pertussis shot.

... Kennedy made his name in the anti-vaccine movement in 2005, when he published a story alleging a massive conspiracy regarding thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative that had been removed from all childhood vaccines except for some variations of the flu vaccine in 2001. In his piece, Kennedy completely ignored an Institute of Medicine immunization safety review on thimerosal published the previous year; he’s also ignored the nine studies funded or conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that have taken place since 2003. (read it all)

FactChecking Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

By Jessica McDonald, FactCheck.Org, Updated on August 23, 2024 - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is no stranger to FactCheck.org. He is a prominent anti-vaccine advocate who has been on our radar for years, primarily as the founder of Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit that spreads anti-vaccine misinformation.

We’ve written numerous stories about his claims and those made in posts appearing on his nonprofit’s website. In 2021, the Center for Countering Digital Hate named Kennedy and CHD one of the “Disinformation Dozen,” or top 12 spreaders of misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines online. 

.... Kennedy, who is also an environmental activist and lawyer, has been opposed to vaccines since at least 2005, when he published an error-laden story in Rolling Stone and Salon that pushed the false notion that certain vaccine ingredients cause autism. The publications later retracted or withdrew the story.

... Kennedy also played a part in one of the worst measles outbreaks in recent memory. In 2018, two infants in American Samoa died when nurses accidentally prepared the combined measles, mumps and rubella, or MMR, vaccine with expired muscle relaxant rather than water. The Samoan government temporarily suspended the vaccination program, and anti-vaccine advocates — including Kennedy and his nonprofit — flooded the area with misinformation. The vaccination rate dropped to a dangerously low level. The next year, when a traveler brought measles to the islands, the disease tore through the population, sickening more than 5,700 people and killing 83, most of them young children.

 Kennedy also promotes conspiracy theories. He believes the CIA was behind the killing of his uncle, and likely his father. He’s alleged that the 2004 presidential election was stolen (it wasn’t). He’s written a book claiming that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was part of “a historic coup d’état against Western democracy.” And he has repeatedly questioned whether HIV is the true or only cause of AIDS (it unequivocally is).

.... He misrepresents major conclusions from papers and gets other details wrong. He conveniently ignores the scientific literature — often vast, and of higher quality — that runs counter to his beliefs. He misleads on vaccine law and misunderstands key governmental programs, consistently viewing them through a lens of conspiracy and corruption.

... One of Kennedy’s most common and pernicious false claims is that vaccines are not tested for safety in clinical trials. .. “Vaccines are the only medical product that is not safety-tested prior to licensure,” Kennedy said in a July 15 “Fox & Friends” interview.

“We should have the same kind of testing — placebo-controlled trials — that we have for every other medication,” he also said to Fox News’ Jesse Watters on July 10. “Vaccines are exempt from pre-licensing placebo-controlled trials.”

“None of the vaccines are ever subjected to true placebo-controlled trials,” Kennedy said in a June 15 episode of the “Joe Rogan Experience” podcast. “It’s the only medical product that is exempt from that prior to licensure.”

Kennedy’s line is a falsehood he’s been using since at least 2017, when he said much the same in a Q&A interview with STAT.

All vaccines undergo safety testing prior to authorization or approval. To claim that vaccines are not tested for safety is overtly false.

In multiple interviews, Kennedy misleads about the hepatitis B vaccine, falsely suggesting that the reason the vaccine is given to newborns is to boost profits for vaccine makers. (read much more)

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