Our Fiscal Situation Has Deteriorated Dramatically Since 2001

 From Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Jan. 5, 2025 - 

In 2001, the federal government ran a surplus and CBO projected that the national debt would be fully paid off by 2009. Instead, our fiscal situation has deteriorated, with debt held by the public growing from 32 percent of GDP at the end of FY 2001 to 98 percent of GDP at the end of 2023. We analyzed what caused this debt growth in our paper, "From Riches to Rags: Causes of Fiscal Deterioration Since 2001." We find that debt growth can be attributed to both tax cuts (37 percentage points of debt-to-GDP) and spending increases (33 percentage points of debt-to-GDP). Another one-third of growth is due to recession responses (28 percentage points of debt-to-GDP). Absent these tax cuts and spending increases, the debt would be fully paid off. Our paper also finds that most of the debt, 77 percent of GDP, was approved on a bipartisan basis.

Top Stories

Remembering a Lifetime of New Year's Eve Celebrations. Thanks for the Memories.

by Kathleen Williams, Jan. 4, 2005 (originally written Dec. 2017) - My sister and brother-in-law have been hosting far-flung family and friends for all these years, every New Year’s Eve; but not this year. Attendance has dwindled. The unexpected loss of Uncle Sonny and regular party-going friend Linda Raintree left us out of the mood. And this year’s arctic blast is a deterrent for older aching bones with several family members who struggle to leave their homes now with impaired vision and mobility. So, the end of an era. I’ll miss it. 

Wow, we’ve had a great run! It’s been a blast, worthy of commemorating each passing year and I’m grateful. Thanks Rebecca and Dale for your generosity and hard work that gave me and so many others such fun over 36 years!!!! 

1980 was the first one at a little rented house in Donelson long before I’d met my husband and later children. I was just 20 years old. I’m now 58. So, the story of this party is a window into the story of all the partygoer’s lives. A snapshot. 

In 1979, Rebecca and I had sold both our cars for a better single car and bought camping gear for an extended tour of the U.S. Bad planning, insufficient funds, a dental emergency, and an old car brought us to a strange place. After about 4 months of camping along the beaches of Florida, Georgia, SC, and NC– we landed in Kenosha, Wisconsin. My now sister-in-law Jeanne Tredup was my brother Donnie’s then girlfriend. We made our way to her family’s sofas and a job at her Dad’s print shop. Later followed by jobs at a nearby theme park: Great America in nearby Waukegan, Illinois. Rebecca met her husband Dale (a high-wire ride mechanic) there that year and stayed, sending me home, alone and broke, back to East Tennessee. (After a month at home, I took off again with my brother Don and Jeanne across country on their honeymoon for 7 weeks -- a story for another time.) 

But that year, Becky and Dale got married and moved back home to Nashville and hosted our first New Year’s Eve Party. I remember my country singing boyfriend serenaded us in their kitchen into the wee hours of the morning – Brother Rod had introduced me to his music and Rod was an eager listener. New friends Lucy and Perky were there and I believe my family from East Tennessee who came about 50% of the time came that year. 

So many years, my dearest friend from high school came: Melanie Ault Watson Burman. In later years, with her wonderful artist husband Steve. Later parties took us out into the country when Rebecca and Dale moved to Joelton. First their little cabin in the edge of some woods and then out to the ranch house on beautiful Sycamore Creek, where my babies both grew up playing in the country. Our raucous music and fireworks disrupted starry cold quiet nights. Only hardy souls with designated drivers or graduates of “the Rod Williams School of Drunk Driving,” (a New Year’s Eve invention from oldest brother Rod) would make the trek. 

So, unless party goers were spending the weekend, turn-out could be low. It was a long windy way to that party. By the time, their move to Sycamore Creek occurred, we were having the next generation of revelers. I was 7 months pregnant for two of the gatherings and breastfeeding for two of them. Then came babies and toddlers and adolescents and teenagers and college kids. 

Sometimes 10 people would be hiding in the bathroom from each other to smoke weed – sometimes it was the adults and other times, it was the kids. (In case you’re shocked, you must have not partied in the ‘80’s. That was part of the scene then.) 

Dancing with babies in my arms. Dressing up for my good-looking husband in my flashiest and sometimes sexiest attire. Big hair and lots of make-up. Later dancing with my growing daughter and son. My nieces and nephews. My Uncle Sonny. Uncle Richard. My old mother, a teetotaler who is the life of the party and loves to dance. She came last year at 85 with her walker and still danced. 

Most of the parties have had these traditional activities which means they’ve all been a blast: Great food (my sister is an exceptional host and cook), raucous music, lots of booze and other party enhancers, political discussion and great conversations, jokes, extended family and friends with kids of all ages, Christmas lights and tree, fireworks (Dale sponsored and fired them off), party hats and blowers, the countdown and kisses, singing Auld Lang Sine, dancing. 

Then some unique traditions developed. Arm-in-arm the party winds down with a circle of the hard-core singing: Marshall Chapman’s “Waiting for the Times to Get Better.” Google it. It’s the perfect song to end the year with. (We had a chance to tell Marshall, a local music rocker – she loved it and we gave her a photo of us in the round.) A scratchy LP is drowned out by our shouting rendition. Afterwards, we have to play David Allen Coe, another particular event. A psychedelic dance by yours truly accompanied by Coe’s “Willie, Waylon, and Me“ became part of the annual activities and lots of dance swapping and hugging and a love fest to end the night. 

Sister Rebecca and buddy Melanie loved to share tequila shots and Brother Donnie developed the practice of passing around limes and salt with the request that we “lick our crotch” between our fisted index finger and thumb. That always gets a laugh. Perhaps it has something to do with the tequila shot.

Without these parties, I wouldn’t have gotten to know first cousin, once-removed Mary Beth Swindell and her husband Don and sons: Russell and Spencer. Nor had special moments with Uncle Sonny when we sang him a round of tribute songs each with the word Sun or Sunny or Sonny. (He died unexpectedly this year – I cherish the experience of this singing tribute.) Nor partied with my nieces and nephew’s friends: Delie singing Aretha Franklin, partying with the son of Dennis Ogle, my high school boyfriend: Jesse Ogle, nephew Justin’s best friend. 

On our drive home, we realized these teen-age guys had imbibed too much and a quick pull-off occurred just in time to avoid a messy van. Sitting on the bench seat with Jesse, I flung him over my lap and simultaneously opened the van door just in time to avoid a mighty hurl. Those country roads at 3 in the morning were rough on the over-indulged tummies. 

Without these parties, our sons may have never had the experience of gathering around Uncle Dale has he shot off fireworks sometimes with misfires landing under the deck we were all standing on or him tumbling down the creek bank and disappearing with sister Rebecca leading the applause like this was part of the act or the fireworks exploding under the car. The pyromaniac boys (Joey included) loved this annual activity. 

Because we had been having the parties for 20 years when the Millennium rolled around, we wanted it to stand out. So, Rebecca offered to let me and Don co-host and we brainstormed new activities: a huge bonfire, a nighttime hike, hot toddies in the barn, a time capsule, and a drum circle were added for this one special party. Uncle Sonny brought blue hair dye just for the occasion. 

I had recently attended a dance class and learned an African chant and dance: Good Feelings Come In – Bad feelings Go Out. It was a hit as everyone marched, drummed, danced and sang in a circle around the fire. After a few minutes brother Rod led us into a new version and chant: A, E, I, O, U, and sometimes Y and W. An instant success as everyone knew it and joined in. The time capsule had us sharing show and tell and then sealing them away. Uncle Sonny took it home and now I don’t know where it is. But I brought a family skate key that had hung in our Mama’s house for 20 years. Don and Donnie brought some writing they had done. Everyone brought something and slid it away into the plugged PVC pipe. 

Pine cone decorated cheese balls, peanut butter and powdered sugar pinwheels, caramel coated crispy oriental noodles, dazzling floral centerpieces (my sis is a master floral arranger), disco balls and disco lights, a throbbing base, and all the smiling, whirling, faces of all my living and departed kin and friends. 

Almost every New year’s Day we gathered again with out-of-towners at my Aunt Linda’s grand old house for black-eyed peas and corn bread and badly needed coffee to enjoy a more sober, somber affair. Still lots of stories and love to share. These are the holiday treasures to last a lifetime that cover so much of my life. Happy 2018! The end of an era.

The above was written by my sister Kathleen. She read it this New Year's Day when we gathered at her house where we enjoyed a good meal that included black-eyed peas. She captures perfectly the essence of those many New Year's Eve parties at by brother-in-law Dale and sister Becky's house. I miss those many years of New Year's Eve parties. Time marches on. Reflecting back, those years saw many changes in my life: marriage, divorce, birth of my daughter, marriage to the love of my life Louella, and ups and downs of life. To Kathleen, thanks for putting the memories in writing. To Becky and Dale, thanks for enriching our live and all the good times. Rod

Top Stories

Congressional ethics committee asks for further investigation into Rep. Ogles' campaign finances

 NASHVILLE, Tenn., Jan. 2, 2025, (WTVF) — The Office of Congressional Ethics is recommending a deeper look into Tennessee Congressman Rep. Andy Ogles' campaign finances after they came under scrutiny when he claimed to have personally loaned $320,000 to his campaign in 2022.

"The Board recommends that the Committee further review the above allegation concerning Rep. Ogles because there is substantial reason to believe that Rep. Ogles’s campaign committee accepted excessive contributions reported as personal loans and contributions from the candidate," the ethics board wrote Thursday. (Read more)

Top Stories

The Most Underreported Story of the Year: Intellectual Trumpism.

by Rod Williams, Dec. 31, 2024-  As the end of the year approached, in various major television studios journalist and other talking heads set around tables and reflected on the year and shared their view of the most significant news developments of the year.  One host of such a panel discussion asked what the most underreported significant story of the year was. In my view, the most underreported story of the year was the rise of intellectual Trumpism.

Some may scoff at such a thing as "intellectual Trumpism." I think it is accurate, and I think it is important.  Trumpism is a form of populism and populism is essentially a movement of the common people with a grievance who find someone to blame. At times it may be resentment of a racial minority or an ethic group or religious group. At times it may be the rich or capitalist or industrialist or some imagined cabal of secret influencers such as the Masons. Intellectual Trumpism is not populism.

In analyzing the Trump movement some will see the underlying basis of Trumpism as racism or Chrisian Nationalism. I think both of those elements are present in the movement but are insignificant. They do not contribute to foundational principles. 

Some will look at the kooks, such as QAnon and conspiracy theorist such as Alex Jones and see that as a basis of Trumpism. The kooks are also there but do not contribute a significant body of ideas that undergird the Trump movement. I imagine most people in the Trump movement see them as a joke and just weird. 

Some will see violent-prone groups such as Proud Boy, Three Percenters, or Oath Keepers as important components of Trumpism. They do exist and may be dangerous, but they do not provide a foundational ideology. 

There are a large number of highly educated and smart people with an ideology that make up Trumpism. This group of thinkers some would describe as "conservative" but in most regards they have very little in common with post-World War II American conservatism. If one were to label this group some might call them the "New Right," or "Far Right." I don't know that those labels fit. For one thing they are old terms, and I think we are seeing something new.  Also, it seems the mainstream media sees a new "New Right" about once every decade. "Far Right" is also overused and has lost any meaning and liberals have applied the term to people like Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh. "Far Right" is almost a synonym for very conservative.  If we need to have a label to describe this movement call it the "Dissident Right." That is the term some within the movement use to refer to themselves. 

Some will dismiss a bunch of smart people touting theories as insignificant. I disagree. Ideals have consequences. Without Karl Marx, we would not have had Marxism and Stalinism and Pol Pot. Communism led to the death of up to 110 million people and denial of freedom and human dignity for much of the world's population. Don't tell me theory does not matter. Without John Locke and Adam Smith and Edmund Burke and Hobbs and Rousseau, would we have had classical liberalism?  On, the other hand however, there are many intellectual movements that went nowhere. If Trump fails miserably and the public's hopes are dashed or if Trump simply dies, will Trumpism die with him? I don't know. Nevertheless, it seems like something important and concerning is happening. Time will tell how it plays out. 

Some will object and scoff and say Trump is hardly an intellectual and how can he be the leader of such a movement. I agree that Trump is not an intellectual. I doubt he has ever read a serious thoughtful book. As president his aides said he would not even read policy papers before important meetings with world leaders. I think with Trump, what you get is what you see. Trump is the person the philosophers hope will bring to fruition the vison they have. That does not mean Trump understands it or is part of it or even aware of it. 

So, what do these Trump intellectuals believe? What is their point of view? To boil down to a couple or three paragraphs volumes of essays and books and presentations is difficult and, of course, there are variations of opinions among the individuals. Also, some of what I read is esoteric and while I am fairly well read, I am only a casual student of philosophy. I don't want to pretend I understand more than I do and some of it is complex and difficult to grasp, but in essence the below paragraphs state the kernel of their argument. 

Democracy has failed, they argue. America has problem. The American people have become weak and decadent and demoralized, and we lack leaders who will take decisive action to right things.  Not only is America experiencing this, but so is Western civilization. Civilization took a wrong turn about the time of the enlightenment. The modern Western emphasis on individual rights is mistaken. Some deny we have innate rights. We are not endowed by our creator with rights as the founders proclaimed; rights are a result of cultural norms that developed over long periods of time. Rights are not universal.  Also, they emphasize the supremacy of people over the individual. This ideology is much more a philosophy of communitarianism as opposed to individualism. 

In order to fix things, we need a strong leader they say. Some of the thinkers in this movement refer to the leader as a strong CEO and some call for a monarch. Some say we need an "American Caeser." For this strong leader to accomplish things, he needs more power. They look at things like checks and balances and separation of power and independent government agencies as impediments to decisive action. When Donald Trump says he may find it necessary to suspend the constitution or when he speaks about using the military to impose order and combat crime, he is speaking their language.

While conservatives are generally advocates of a strong market economy and free enterprise and believe a corporation's job is to earn a profit for its shareholders, the Trump intellectuals tend to suspicious of contemporary capitalism. They believe that commercial interest should serve the interest of the people. They are especially suspicious of multinational corporations. They are also critical of the role that consumerism and consumption has on culture. Having lots of toys distracts and keeps us content and drains society of its vitality.

When it comes to foreign affairs and America's role in the world, they also think we are on the wrong track. They think we should not be exerting American influence around the world. They are not however idealistic, naive, principled isolationist. Many of these thinkers are enamored of a Russian philosopher and activist by the name of Aleksandr Dugin who argues that a multipolar world with different nations dominating their respective region is desirable and normal. When Donald Trump expresses doubt about our NATO alliance and when he appears ready to greenlight Putin's conquest of Ukraine and when he talks about acquiring Greenland, Panama, and Canada, and setting the stage to justify invading Mexico, this aligns with their view. When Donald Trump makes nice and is complementary of authoritarian world leaders, they see this as a positive thing.

There are a lot of people involved in the intellectual dissident right movement and the movement looks to a previous era of thinkers, many long deceased, for guidance. I am throwing out some names one should be familiar with to understand this movement. These are in no particular order and by including a name below does not mean to imply that they are all on the same page or are in agreement. Also, I am not attempting to smear anyone. Some, I am not sure even deserve to be considered part of this movement but some in the movement claim and quote them, so they are included for that reason. For several of the names on this list, I have only the briefest acquaintance with their work. I know who they are and that is about it.  

Here is the list: Steve Bannon, Curtis Yarvin, Alexander Dugan, Friedrich Nietzsche, Leo Strauss, Julius Evola, Carl Schmit, Martin Heidegger, Aleksandr Dugin, Bronze Age Pervert (BAP), James Burnham, Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Yoram Hazony, Oswald Spengler, and Peter Theil.

There are other whose names I cannot recall who need to be on this list, I am sure. Some, such as Tucker Carlson promote the views of some of these people but he himself, in my view, is not sufficiently intellectual nor is he a theorist so I am not including him in this list. As Tucker himself says, he is just asking questions. There are other like Carlson who promote the theories but are more advocates than thinkers, so they don't make the cut for the list. Others who espouse some of the views of the people on the list are omitted because they lack the credentials or gravitas to be taken seriously. It is hard to know where to cut off the list. Since this is my own list, it would no doubt differ from someone else compiling a list.  Also, I have only put people on the list and not organizations. There are organizations such as the National Conservatism Conference and Clairmont Institue who are supportive of some of the views of the intellectual Trumpian movement, but I am restricting this list to individual thinkers. Who should and who should not be included is a subjective matter. 

I may do a Part II to this post and summarize what some of the people on this list contribute to the movement, what they think, and why they are important. I also have come across some articles that shed more light on the movement. I may summarize and link to such articles. Stay tuned for updates. 

Top Stories