Saturday, April 12, 2025

Art of the Deal

 


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Friday, April 11, 2025

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s underwhelming stop in Nashville was a missed opportunity

 The event felt like a pep rally for the faithful but didn’t address the issues plaguing the Democratic Party

by Bruce Barry, Tennessee Lookout, April 8, 2025 - Joining the ranks of prominent national Democrats parachuting into red parts of the country for town-hall-style pep rallies, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren popped into town last weekend to headline a buck-up-the-blue gig at Nashville’s Pearl-Cohn High School gym.  A crowd of 1,500 or so despairing Democrats were on hand to receive a collective transfusion of progressive gusto delivered by a skilled celebrity political phlebotomist. 

Actually, the despair was already in temporary remission even before Warren took the stage, given the timing — many ventured on over to Pearl-Cohn already jazzed by the anti-everything-Trump “Hands Off” rally in Centennial Park earlier that afternoon. ...

I didn’t come away sharing that optimism. ... Here are the things that troubled me about Warren’s appearance. ... the slapdash DOGEcropping of federal bureaucracy may be feckless and pernicious, the motivation behind it is politically popular ... troubled by all the things that Warren didn’t talk about. No discussion of immigration and culture-war issues ... No mention of party leadership’s complicity in propping up Biden and preempting a nomination contest. ...  I faulted Warren above for lacking depth, but beyond that I found aspects of her remarks to border on infantilizing. ...It’s as if in deciding to fly down she thought to herself “OK, I’m heading to ignoramus-laden Tennessee so I’ll need to dial down the rhetoric to hayseed.” ... The Warren appearance was explicitly billed as a town hall, but a town hall is an audience-question-driven conversation, not stump-speech bloviation followed by a quick handful of softball questions and cue the selfie line. ... a political celebrity pop-in that elevates shopworn talking-point speechifying over an actual thoughtful conversation about the real problems the party faces is an occasion quickly forgotten, and rightly so. (read it all)


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Harwood Salons present steve Johnson, Restoring the Balance of Power, April 16

 


Join us in Nashville for an event with Steve Johnson, SPN’s Center for Practical Federalism Fellow.

For the last few decades, the federal government has expanded in size and influence, dramatically shifting the balance of power between the states and Washington, DC. Join former Michigan House of Representative, Steve Johnson, as he shares why a return to the Founders’ vision of federalism is crucial to put decision-making power back into the hands of the American people. Steve will delve into the practical implications of decentralizing power from the federal government back to the states and how the Center for Practical Federalism is working to empower state and local governments to advance policy solutions that benefit the people in their states.

Registration Required

Agenda 

6:00 PM – 6:30 PM – Networking

6:30 PM – 7:15 PM – Presentation by Steve Johnson

7:15 PM – 7:30 PM – Q&A


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ICE Decides who's "Linked to" Gangs, Border Czar Says

by Brittany Gibson, Axios, April 9, 2025- Immigration agents are the "principal" deciders on whether a detainee is linked to a gang and should be deported immediately, border czar Tom Homan told Axios in an exclusive interview.

If agents determine the answer is yes, Homan said, the Trump administration believes that detainee's rights to due process are limited.

Not so fast, the Supreme Court said late Monday. The court signaled that detainees designated as "enemies" of the U.S. could be deported, but should have some way to challenge their removal.

... "ICE is the principal arbiter" in weighing whether such factors warrant deportation, Homan said. "There's a Homeland Security task force and a lot of agents involved. ... But it starts with ICE."

The administration claims Garcia is a member of MS-13, a transnational gang that U.S. officials have designated as a terrorist organization.

U.S. District Judge Paula Xinia in Maryland said Trump's team made a "grievous error" deporting Garcia, and that evidence indicating he's a gang member "consisted of nothing more than his Chicago Bulls hat and hoodie." (link)

Comments from W. H. Bernstein

 Early on I nominated Tom Homan for the role of "Goering" in this administration.  Another win for me.

Again, I have written about this numerous times: when you see something is "linked to" something else, you are being played.  What does "linked to" mean?  I am "linked to" a convicted sex offender (our kids went to the same school and we had him and his wife over for dinner once).  I am not a convicted sex offender (or even an unconvicted or accused one).

But to be "linked to" a gang might mean your childhood friend is in one.  Your cousin is part of one.  You live in the same building as one. It is a meaninglfess term.

Which is why in the U.S. we rightly have a judicial process for sorting that, with an adversarial system between accused and accuser and a judge to adjudicate merits.

Homan doesn't want that.  As all authoritarians do, he believes he and his agents create reality.  No adjudication allowed.


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Thursday, April 10, 2025

Trade Freedom and The Myth of Tariff Reciprocity. Trump is Simply Lying. The World is Not Treating Us Unfairly.

by Phillip Magness, Independent Institute, April 1, 2025- President Trump is imposing steep and expansive tariffs on the world economy as part of what he calls his tariff “Liberation Day” agenda.

It is not clear how these massive tax hikes, reaching as high as $600 billion according to the White House’s own estimates, will “liberate” anything other than money from the wallets of American consumers. Nonetheless, Trump has justified his new tariff policy around the claim that the United States is being taken advantage of by the discriminatory trade policies of other nations.

In the White House’s telling, these new tariffs “will bring back fairness and prosperity to the distorted international trade system and stop Americans from being taken advantage of.” Trump describes his measures as “reciprocal” and claims they are only necessary because other countries apply even more egregious tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to American goods on the international market. As Trump himself recently put it when justifying his tariffs on Canada, “We’ve been ripped off for years and we won’t be ripped off anymore.”

There’s a problem with the White House’s tariff justification, though: it’s a complete myth.

The United States is currently one of the worst offenders among developed nations in placing discriminatory tariffs and NTBs on our trading partners. This ignominious position may be seen in the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom, which compiles an annual “trade freedom” score for nearly 200 countries and political jurisdictions. According to the 2025 report, the United States ranks in 69th place, putting us lower than New Zealand (2nd), Australia (3rd), the United Kingdom (17th), Canada (18th), France (38th), and Germany (39th).

The Heritage 100-point scale combines the country’s trade-weighted average tariff rate with a scoring of its NTBs—an assortment of quotas, export restrictions, subsidies, regulations, and similar policies that discriminate against foreign goods or unfairly prop up domestic products. A score closer to 100 represents lower tariff rates and fewer discriminatory trade policies.

The United States’ score of 75.6 places it well below most of the European Union countries, as well as all of the aforementioned major trading partners. In fact, our discriminatory trade policies place us in closer proximity to China’s score (74) than one of the main targets of Trump’s current trade war, Canada (83.2).

     “Trade Freedom” Score for Top 100 Countries, (Heritage Foundation 2025)
CountryIndex YearTrade Freedom
Singapore202595
New Zealand202590.4
Australia202590
Mauritius202587.4
Bahrain202586.6
Liechtenstein202586.6
Switzerland202586.6
Taiwan202586.6
Georgia202586.2
Seychelles202585.2
Norway202585
Brunei Darussalam202584.8
Spain202584.6
Kosovo202584.2
Albania202583.4
Malaysia202583.4
United Kingdom202583.4
Canada202583.2
Israel202582.8
Jordan202582.4
Peru202581.6
Qatar202581.6
Uzbekistan202580.6
Iceland202580.4
Kiribati202580
Timor-Leste202580
Papua New Guinea202579.8
Vietnam202579.8
Austria202579.6
Belgium202579.6
Bulgaria202579.6
Croatia202579.6
Cyprus202579.6
Czech Republic202579.6
Denmark202579.6
Estonia202579.6
Finland202579.6
France202579.6
Germany202579.6
Greece202579.6
Hungary202579.6
Ireland202579.6
Italy202579.6
Latvia202579.6
Lithuania202579.6
Luxembourg202579.6
Malta202579.6
Montenegro202579.6
Netherlands202579.6
Poland202579.6
Portugal202579.6
Romania202579.6
Slovakia202579.6
Slovenia202579.6
Sweden202579.6
Indonesia202579.4
The Philippines202579.2
Botswana202578.8
Panama202578.6
United Arab Emirates202578.4
Oman202578.2
Paraguay202578.2
Chile202578
North Macedonia202577.8
Moldova202577.2
Serbia202577.2
Japan202576.2
Kuwait202575.6
United States202575.6
Costa Rica202575.4
Tonga202575.4
Micronesia202575
Mongolia202574.4
Turkmenistan202574.2
China202574
Mozambique202574
Eswatini202573.6
Kyrgyz Republic202573.6
Kazakhstan202573.2
South Korea202573.2
Ukraine202573.2
Uruguay202573
Cuba202572.8
Saudi Arabia202572.8
Turkey202572.8
Thailand202572.4
Colombia202572.2
Guatemala202572.2
Mexico202572.2
Tajikistan202572.2
Armenia202572
Jamaica202571.8
Brazil202571.6
Angola202570.4
El Salvador202570.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina202570
Côte d’Ivoire202570
Namibia202570
Azerbaijan202569.8
Pakistan202569.8

The Heritage index should not be dismissed as a product of a right-leaning think tank. Its data are consistent with (and indeed draw upon) other indexes of tariff barriers. The World Bank maintains an index of each country’s weighted mean tariff rate in the most recent year with available data, with 2022 being the current measure. This index does not include NTBs, which are more difficult to quantify. It is nonetheless a reputable source of the tariff component of current trade barriers.

According to the World Bank’s series, the United States’ weighted mean tariff rate sits at 1.49%, placing it 47th overall among countries. For comparison, Australia (0.99%), the United Kingdom (1%), all of the European Union countries (1.33%), and Canada (1.37%) have lower tariff rates than the United States.

In fact, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff policies are currently estimated to raise the United States’ average tariff rate to 8.4% by the end of 2025. Further tariff hikes on “liberation day” could raise this even higher, with some inside the administration calling for a “benchmark” overall tariff of 20%. For reference, an 8.4% average tariff would place the United States just behind Uganda (7.86%) in the World Bank’s rankings. A 20% benchmark tariff would give us the third-highest tariff rate in the world, just behind Equatorial Guinea (18.2%) and significantly higher than the tariff rates imposed by the Marxist governments of Cuba (9.16%) and Venezuela (12.8%).



Trump's Average Tariff Rate - Tax Foundation

These data conclusively belie the White House’s claim that the United States is the victim of unfair and discriminatory tariff and NTB policies from abroad. In reality, we impose higher tariffs and more severe NTBs on average than most developed nations.

If Trump truly wanted tariff “fairness,” he would abandon the rhetoric of victimization that he has adopted. The data above show that it has little basis in empirical reality. Genuine trade reciprocity would entail the United States lowering our current tariff rates and removing NTBs to put us at closer parity with our major trading partners.

Phillip W. Magness is a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and the David J. Theroux Chair in Political Economy. He has served as Senior Research Fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, and as Academic Program Director at the Institute for Humane Studies and Adjunct Professor of Public Policy in the School of Public Policy and Government at George Mason University. He received his Ph.D. from George Mason University’s School of Public Policy.

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