A Solid Majority are Against Trump Tariffs

 From Foundation for Economic Education, April 19, 2025: 

A new national poll just dropped, and the results are striking. AtlasIntel—now considered America’s most precise pollster—asked people what they think of the new tariffs announced by the Trump administration. The response? A solid majority, 52%, are completely against them. Only 23% are completely in favor. In an age of polarization, that amounts to a national consensus. Among young people, opposition is even stronger: 64% of Americans aged 18–29 are completely against the tariffs, and another 5% are mostly against them. That’s more than two-thirds of the next generation rejecting protectionism! That might be because of a general distrust in the current government, sure. But more importantly, it suggests something deeper: a generation that leans instinctively toward free trade. That instinct is gold. But instinct alone won’t last.   Atlas National Poll — Conducted April 10–14, 2025 If we want this moment to matter, if we want to build lasting, principled support for open markets, we need to turn intuition into understanding. That’s where economic education comes in. Right now, many Americans can sense that tariffs are bad. Prices haven’t surged at the checkout line just yet, but people are paying attention. They see markets dipping. Treasury yields climbing. The dollar weakening. They’re connecting the dots. In fact, in the same poll: 64% of all Americans and 79% of young Americans believe the tariffs will increase price inflation. That’s a good start. But people need to understand why this happens.   Atlas National Poll — Conducted April 10–14, 2025 Tariffs are taxes. That’s the first lesson we teach our students. When you tax imports, you raise the cost of doing business. Not just for consumers at the checkout line, but for manufacturers trying to source materials. Prices go up. Options go down. But there’s a second, deeper layer. And it comes down to something we teach all the time at FEE: opportunity cost. Alex Tabarrok put it brilliantly in a piece recently published at FEE.org. Here’s a version of his example: Let’s say we slap tariffs on imported wine. Suddenly, demand for California wine spikes. Local producers scramble to meet it. But to grow more grapes, they need more land. They’re already using the best land. So they expand to less productive land, which increases costs. Plus, that land could’ve been used for something else: almonds, cattle, solar panels, even homes. So now we’re not just paying more for wine; we’re paying more for everything else, too. That’s the real cost: inefficiency, lower productivity. Not all popular instincts are pointed in the right direction. Proponents argue that tariffs will strengthen American manufacturing, and 41% of respondents agree. Only 37% recognize that tariffs actually weaken it. Younger Americans show a better grasp of the issue, with 45% identifying the harm tariffs pose to manufacturing.   Atlas National Poll — Conducted April 10–14, 2025 More people should look at the evidence. Manufacturing jobs as a share of employment in the U.S. have kept on declining. But manufacturing employment in China is declining, too. Why? Because China isn’t frozen in time. They’ve automated. “Dark factories” run on machines, not manpower. If the U.S. wants to compete, it needs to move forward, not clinging to a nostalgic past.   Yes, that is China, not America. Almost 75 million manufacturing jobs lost since 2011. (Source: Financial Times) Modern manufacturing is global, complex, and high-tech. Tariffs don’t help it. They hobble it. As Ryan Petersen from Flexport points out, many small American businesses are getting crushed, unable to shift suppliers or absorb higher costs:   Yes, tariffs could bankrupt thousands of U.S. small businesses that rely on Chinese manufacturing due to limited alternatives. In fact, data from Flexport shows a 50% drop in ocean freight bookings from China since tariffs hit, threatening $1 trillion in U.S. economic activity. In fact, Chinese factories may acquire failing U.S. brands, capturing the high-value customer-facing segment and vertically integrating supply chains. In other words, the policy meant to protect American enterprise will be its undoing. That’s why this moment matters. The polling is encouraging. Americans are skeptical. Young people are leading the charge. That’s a signal. But signals fade. It’s our job to turn that signal into signal strength. Because instincts, left alone, drift. They need grounding. They need explanation. They need to stick. We need to teach, clearly, repeatedly, how protectionism: Raises prices by taxing inputs and distorting resource use, Hurts U.S. manufacturers by making their supply chains more expensive, Can’t revive yesterday’s jobs in today’s global economy, and Punishes innovation by forcing inefficient production. That’s what economic education is for. That’s why FEE exists. Let’s keep teaching.

In Liberty, Diogo Costa President, FEE

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The Hollow Men.

 It takes a special talent to betray an entire worldview without missing a beat.

by George Packer, The Atlantic, March 25, 2025- In George Orwell’s 1984, at the climax of Hate Week, Oceania is suddenly no longer at war with Eurasia, but instead is at war with Eastasia, and always has been. The pivot comes with no explanation or even announcement. During a public harangue, a Party orator is handed a scrap of paper and redirects his vitriol “mid-sentence, not only without a pause, but without even breaking the syntax.”

Republican politicians in Donald Trump’s Inner Party faced a similar verbal challenge when the president changed sides in Russia’s war against Ukraine. One morning in late February, Republicans in Washington greeted Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky as a hero for continuing to resist Russian aggression. By afternoon, following Zelensky’s meeting in the Oval Office with Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance, the Ukrainian leader was an ungrateful, troublesome, and badly dressed warmonger who, if he hadn’t actually started the conflict with Russia, was the only obstacle to ending it.

After this new line was communicated to party leaders, a pro-Zelensky social-media post was taken down as swiftly as the banners denouncing Eurasia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, and Senator Lindsey Graham—all supporters of Ukraine—were sent out in front of the cameras like the Hate Week orator, not to explain a new policy but to pretend that nothing had changed while America switched sides. Using nearly identical language, Rubio, Johnson, and Graham declared that Zelensky must do Trump’s bidding, which is also Vladimir Putin’s bidding, and capitulate to Russia; otherwise, Johnson and Graham added, Zelensky should resign. America’s enemy isn’t Russia. America’s enemy is Ukraine.

Graham’s mechanical style is to flit almost gleefully from one position to its opposite while remaining a party insider, which is his only consistent position and the justification for all his others. Johnson stares through his glasses and gropes for the appropriate words with the unease of a simple man trying not to screw up his lines: “I can tell you that we are—we are re-exerting peace through strength. President Trump has brought back strength to the White House. We knew that this moment would come, we worked hard for it to come, and now it’s here.” Rubio is a more complex case. He sat mute throughout the Oval Office blowup while his principles almost visibly escaped his body, causing it to sink deeper into the yellow sofa. Having made his name in the Senate as a passionate defender of democracy and adversary of authoritarianism, he must have suffered more than others from the inner contortions demanded by the new party line—they were written on his unhappy face.

But Rubio had already begun the process of mechanizing himself weeks before, when he shut down foreign-aid programs that he had always supported. Reappearing in public after the meeting with Zelensky, he denounced the Ukrainian president with the overzealous exasperation of a successfully hollowed policy maker. ... Ritualized humiliation is essential to an authoritarian regime. ... (read more)

Rod's Comment: 

This is an excellent article. One thing that has amazed me is the way Republicans have been able to betray formerly held positions without batting an eye. Ukraine is the most obvious example and the focus of this article, but we also see it in other long term foundational believes of the modern Republican Party. Beyond Ukraine we see it in Republican's abandonment of collective security and America's leadership role in the world. We see it in tariff policy when for decades Republicans had been the party of free trade. We see in acceptance of violating the Constitution when the Republican Party had been the party of constitutional fidelity, strict construction and originalism. And we see in in abandonment of conservative sensibilities such as civic virtue, a preference of order over chaos, and respect for tradition and institutions and norms. 

The above article is hidden behind a pay wall. You may want to consider subscribing to the Atlantic. While there may not be much an average citizen can do to push back against the Trump onslaught against democracy, one thing I think it is important to do is to support those media outlets and think tanks and institutions that are pushing back against our slide into authoritarianism. Atlantic is one of those publications providing thoughtful insight and analysis in these unusual times. 

I have for a long time been planning to right a blog post on the ten or 12 or 15 books that has influenced by thinking or maybe something like, "twenty books every conservative should read."  I keep putting it off. When I do get around to it, 1984 will be one of the books that make the cut. If you have never read it or read it long ago and forgot it, I suggest it. 

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Appeals Court Shoots Down Part of Nashville Transit Plan on Housing, Parks but Upholds Most

by Evan Mealins, The Tennessean, April 15, 2025- The Tennessee Court of Appeals on April 15 nixed a small part of Nashville's transit improvement plan while upholding the vast majority of it.

A three-judge panel ruled Metro Nashville cannot acquire land for affordable housing and parks with funds raised through the transit plan's tax surcharge. ...

Nashville's transit plan has to comply with a 2017 state law called the IMPROVE Act that allows cities to levy a sales tax increase to directly fund a "transit improvement program." The judges said they "fail to see how the purchase of property for housing development and parks is consistent" with the law's definition of a transit improvement program. (read it all)

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Tennessee Ranks 2nd in Analysis of State Finances

By Kim Jarrett, The Center Square, April 15, 2025- Tennessee ranks second for its economic outlook in an annual analysis of the fiscal health of the 50 states.

The 18th annual Rich States, Poor States from the American Legislative Exchange Council shows Tennessee moved to the second spot after ranking 6th in 2024 and 13th in 2023.

The Volunteer State received its highest marks for its tax policies. The state has no income tax or estate/inheritance tax. Tennessee also received the top mark for its minimum wage, which is at the federal level of $7.25 an hour.

Tennessee's high sales tax rate placed it at 44th, its worst rating. The sales tax rate is 7%.

The state's economic performance ranking was 12th among the 50 states, according to the report.

An analysis of Tennessee's gross domestic product for 2013 to 2023 showed it was 76.25%, 10th in the country.

The state welcomed 405,833 new residents between 2021 and 2023, ranking it seventh among the states, according to the report.

“As Washington attempts to tackle debt and dysfunction, the states remain America’s last line of defense for fiscal responsibility and economic growth,” said ALEC President and Chief Economist Jonathan Williams. “Rich States, Poor States once again illustrates that Americans vote with their feet – leaving high-tax, high-regulation states in favor of those embracing low taxes, balanced budgets, and worker freedom. The states leading our rankings thrive because they put the people first.”

Utah took the top spot in the report, with Indiana, North Carolina and North Dakota rounding out the top five. The bottom five states are Illinois, California, New Jersey, Vermont and New York.

The report was co-authored by Reagan economist Dr. Arthur B. Laffer, policy expert Stephen Moore, and ALEC president and chief economist Jonathan Williams.

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It’s Tax Day—Here’s How Washington Spent Your Money

By Dominik Lett, CATO Institute, April 15, 2025- It’s officially Tax Day. Time to take stock.

The federal government spent $7.1 trillion in 2024. Tax dollars paid for $5.3 trillion, or 74 percent. The rest (26 percent) was borrowed. This $1.8 trillion in deficit spending is deferred taxation. Inevitably, borrowing will be paid for by new taxes or inflation, meaning our children and grandchildren will pay the price for higher spending today.

Where did all that money go?

The federal government spends the most on transfer programs. That is when the government redistributes money from one group to another rather than supplying governmental services like national defense.

As the chart below shows:

• Major entitlements—Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security—devoured nearly half of the 2024 budget. ($3.1 trillion)
• Other non-defense discretionary and mandatory programs, primarily benefits and subsidies, consumed another 32 percent. This includes a vast range of programs, such as welfare for food and housing, federal employee retirement, disability benefits, veterans’ benefits, and unemployment benefits. ($2.3 trillion)
• Overall, two-thirds of government spending went to pay some sort of benefit to someone.
• Interest on the US federal debt consumed another 12 percent of the budget. ($881 billion)
• Slightly less, $850 billion, or 12 percent, went toward national defense, meaning we spent more this year financing past fiscal irresponsibility than on the military.

The federal government’s budget outlook is quite dismal as well. Federal health care programs and Social Security make up more than half of projected spending growth over the next 30 years. Interest costs from servicing the federal debt account for another quarter of 30-year spending growth. Together, $8 in $10 of spending growth is traceable to major entitlement programs and interest costs on the national debt.

Meanwhile, most Americans seem more focused on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and its efforts to cut waste, fraud, and abuse. Eliminating waste and improving efficiency are laudable objectives, but our fiscal trajectory will remain largely unchanged without reforming major entitlement programs.

If legislators continue to refuse to take health care and old-age entitlement reform seriously, there isn’t much they’ll be able to do to avoid massive (unpopular) middle-class tax increases. Medicare and Social Security are responsible for 100 percent of long-term unfunded obligations. The benefit growth for these programs is simply unsustainable, and the alternative of doing nothing risks a future fiscal crisis. Taxing the rich isn’t a catch-all solution either, given there’s not enough money to take from higher-income earners to make the math work.

And there is no way to “grow” our way out of this fiscal situation either. Social Security is indexed to grow with average wages, and Medicare spending is growing faster than economic growth. Both face similar demographic problems due to declining birth rates and improvements in longevity. No amount of new debt financing or political promises of a booming economy will make these fundamental realities go away. More likely, our worsening fiscal situation will accelerate our current financing problems, with the federal government’s massive debt burden slowing growth, boosting inflation, and raising interest costs. Delaying reform contributes directly to this problem.

Sadly, Washington’s most recent budget-related action was to approve a Senate fiscal framework that hides more than $5 trillion in deficit-increasing tax cuts. Extending the 2017 tax cuts is a great opportunity to lower tax rates and eliminate loopholes, but it must be done alongside shrinking the size of government in a fiscally responsible manner. That means demanding that legislators have the courage to cut spending, which is the real tax rate. While the final tax package has yet to be crafted, history would caution that Washington will likely continue rampant spending. Perhaps this time will be different.

Deficits today represent tax increases tomorrow. So, if you thought your taxes were too high and burdensome this year, here’s some more bad news: without reducing the growth in Medicare and Social Security benefits, Congress will have no choice but to raise taxes on most Americans at some point in the future.

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FACT CHECK: Is Ford Moving Four of Its Factories Back to the US As a Result of Trump Tariffs?

 

by Rod Williams, April 4, 2025- The image to the right has shown up on my Facebook page a lot recently. As you can see, it claims that Ford is moving four factories back to the US, along with 25,000 high paying jobs apparently due to Trump Tariffs.

There is no basis in fact to this claim. Check Your Facts says the claim is false. They go on to say:

The claim is false and originally stems from a March 26 post shared by “America’s Last Line of Defense,” which is a satirical Facebook page. The Facebook page describes itself as “the flagship of the ALLOD network of trollery and propaganda for cash” before reiterating “nothing on this page is real.”

Likewise, Check Your Fact did not find a press release on Ford’s website or a statement shared on its verified social media accounts repeating the claim. Trump also does not appear to have publicly commented on the claim via his personal or government X accounts, his TRUTH Social account, or his verified social media accounts. (RELATED: Viral X Image Does Not Show Authentic Truth Social Post From Trump About ‘Ending Tariffs’)

In addition, Check Your Fact did not find any credible news reports to support the claim. If Ford had truly decided to move four of its factories back to the U.S. as the Threads post claims, multiple media outlets would’ve covered it, yet none have.

Actually, the opposite is true. On March 31, Snopes debunked the claim, tracing its origin to the same satirical Facebook page.

I know this will not influence the diehard super MAGA crowd. If Trump told them, it was midnight in the noon of the day, they would find a way to believe him. Faith can be hard to shake. Remember all the people who drank the Jim Jones Kool-Aid. What we are seeing with the Trump phenomena is not much different. However, not everyone who voted for Trump parked their brain at the door and we need to continue to counter falsehood with the truth. 

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